Evacuation Route Evaluation

Approaching the Cardinal River Valley (photo by V.A. McMillan)

Title: Evacuation Route Evaluation

The whole premise of The G.O.O.D. Plan – Get Out Of Dodge (https://thegoodplanblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-good-plan-now-available-on-amazon.html)is to evacuate your family and yourself from where you are to a safer location during a crisis or disaster event. In emergency management those responsible for a community try to plan for the mass evacuation of a whole community or portions of the community during disaster events to save the greatest number of people in the shortest amount of time. There are many challenges to effectively achieve a successful evacuation, not the least of which is being at your own home when the event begins. When you are at a familiar starting point, and you have a plan, and you know where you are going, and you have a primary, secondary, & tertiary routes to get there; odds are better that you will arrive at your planned destination. This begins to get murky when more than one variable is new.

For instance, if you are on vacation and are staying in a strange location when a disaster event occurs you will be at a disadvantage if you need to evacuate. As a visitor you are more likely to be at the mercy of the emergency response plan of the community you are staying in, then when you are at home…UNLESS, you do your homework ahead of time and create a GOOD PLAN for when you are on vacation, in addition to your GOOD PLAN you have created when you are at home. In fact, you could create a basic VACATION GOOD PLAN that stays as an appendix to your GOOD PLAN, that only needs to be tweaked for different vacation locations. Then you can take a copy of that appendix with you.

So, let’s talk about evaluating evacuation routes…the process will be the same for your primary GOOD PLAN as it is for any supplemental GOOD PLANS – vacations, business travel, or just going to the city. Today, we will look at four considerations that can impact evacuation route selection – Mode of Transport, Known Hazards, Safe Zone location, and Routes (see mind map).

Evac Route Evaluation - Mind Map

In this discussion we will not address the type of disaster or crisis event that triggers the need to evacuate. I do recognize that certain events will impact evacuation decisions and route selection; however, we will leave that discussion for a different day.

Starting with Mode of Transport will determine which route has the highest probability to get you to your Safe Zone in the available time to ensure a successful evacuation. At the start time if you have a motorized vehicle in good operating condition, adequate fuel, and a competent driver, you have a better than average chance for success to evacuate a rapidly changing disaster event. To increase the chance of success from a pure luck outcome to something more in your own control requires pre-planning. What are the vehicle’s capabilities?? What is the driver’s experience and skill level?? Can the vehicle travel on routes that are not paved?? Can the vehicle ford shallow water?? Does the vehicle contain basic pioneer tools – shovel, axe, saw, and pick?? Does the vehicle have self-recovery ability – spare tire(s), jerry can of fuel, high lift jack, tow straps, winch, and/or come-along?? Does the vehicle have 4x4 or tire chains for driving in snow?? These are just some of the questions one must ask themselves when pre-planning. To be ready to action your GOOD PLAN you need to know the answers. Because those answers help you determine what route options contribute to developing your PRIMARY ROUTE, SECONDARY ROUTE, and your TERTIARY ROUTE. We will return to routes a little later.

Now if you are not expecting to evacuate using a motorized land travel vehicle, things get a bit more complicated. If your Mode of Transport is with an aircraft, you will need access to said craft and the required licensing & skills to operate it safely. Unless the crisis event devolves into a state without law and order, you will need to abide by licensing rules and regulations. Aircraft also add a secondary challenge in that they are quite picky on where they land. So, if air travel is your Mode of Transport you need to know how to operate your craft, where you are going, and the safest route to get there. Unlike a land vehicle, it is unlikely that an aircraft can be refueled in flight from jerry cans, so your route needs to know how far your aircraft can travel on a given load of fuel and where you can refuel enroute to your Safe Zone. I assume that if air travel is your chosen method, you have a safe place to land when you reach your Safe Zone. The obvious advantage to air travel is that few other folks will be using that Mode of Transport. And location that can be reached ONLY by air will be less populated than ones that can be reached via roads or rails. Therefore, depending on the trigger event, isolation could be a life saver!!

If escape is via water using some sort of vessel, you do not have the same challenges as evacuating by air…namely, you do not have to contend with falling out of the sky. That however does not mean that there are no challenges. Vessels need to be appropriate for the body of water they are planned to traverse – inland water ways (rivers, or lakes), coastal waters, or open ocean (blue water). Furthermore, what means of locomotion does the vessel require?? Fueled engines? Wind? Human power – rowing, paddling, or peddling? Motor vessels will require an adequate supply of fuel to move from one location to the next. Wind vessels require sails. And people powered vessels require humans fit enough to row, paddle, or peddle. Of course, you can drift with the currents, but you might not make it to your destination, unless you know ahead of time where the currents will take you. Again, this requires pre-planning and testing your Mode of Transport along your chosen route. While floating vessels do not need to worry about falling from the sky, they do need to be concerned with staying afloat, which means you need at least a primary and secondary method of evacuating unwanted water from inside your vessel. You would also be wise to have a couple methods for patching your hull in the event your vessel bumped into something that can poke a hole in your hull. Those residing in coastal communities may what to consider using a water evacuation instead of trying to go overland with the crowds. Or at the very least become skilled enough to safely operate a vessel in local waters in case overland routes become non-passable.

Next let’s look at Known Hazards, which are locations or conditions that are expected to cause challenges in times of disaster or crisis. For the purpose of this discussion, we will see Known Hazards through Seasons, Obstacles, & Choke Points. Seasons – winter, spring, summer, autumn, can change the traveling conditions of your planned evacuation route. In Northern climates winter is a noticeable challenge – freezing temperatures, frozen water, slippery ice, and deep snow. So, while a route in the summer or early autumn may be passable with a normal passenger vehicle, in winter that same route may require a 4x4 offroad vehicle with chains, winch, and traction devices or it might only be passable with a snowmobile or tracked vehicle. It is incumbent on you to know your local conditions on your routes in all four seasons. Because this in knowable, it is plannable.

While Seasons are mostly consistent, Obstacles can change as the Mode of Transport changes. A mountain pass, which is usually the lowest location to get between mountains in a range can be crossed on foot in most seasons, with minimal extraneous effort. On the other hand, if there is no road over the mountain pass it will be an extreme effort to move a small convoy of vehicles. And winter will not be an option. If you have offroad vehicles like side-by-side quads on tracks or snowmobiles crossing a mountain pass without a road in the winter becomes a possibility. Success being more likely if there are a group of offroad vehicles traveling together to help each other.

Other Obstacles include lakes, rivers, swamps, cliffs, and forests. Thankfully, these Obstacles are mapped and known. If it is known, it can be planned for.

Finally, we have Choke Points, which coincidentally show up at Obstacles. Cliffs that endanger the roads will likely have tunnels or snow sheds to protect them and improve safe passage of vehicles. Rivers and creeks will have bridges over them. Brooks and small streams will pass under roads through culverts. Mountain passes will have snow removal equipment to keep the roads open through the winter. Bridges, tunnels, passes – are all Choke Points!! A Choke Point is a location that has no alternate or bypass route. Choke Points make excellent Control Points, because all traffic on that route is funnelled into the Choke Point and avoiding the Choke Point is not a likely option. Whether the reasons are legitimate or nefarious, those who control a Choke Point hold the power to control the fate of those trying to evacuate. The lone road to a Safe Zone can also be a Choke Point. So, when you are planning your PRIMARY ROUTE, SECONDARY ROUTE, & TERTIARY ROUTE, you need to conduct, at the very least, a map recce to identify ALL the Choke Points and find alternate routes that bypass them. If it is known, it can be planned for.

The Safe Zone is where you plan to go if you must evacuate your primary residence. The Safe Zone can be a bugout location (BOL), a secondary residence, a vacation home or RV lot, or staying with friends and/or family. No matter how well designed and constructed your primary residence may be, there may come a time when you need to evacuate, even for a short duration and in that event, you need to have a destination to evacuate to or you will become just another refugee at an emergency shelter. Thus, the primary purpose of evacuation is to move from a location with unacceptable danger(s) to a location that provides a level of safety.

For our purpose, the Safe Zone is used to give a fixed final location to establish a PRIMARY ROUTE, SECONDARY ROUTE, & TERTIARY ROUTE to, from our primary residence. Primary residence can also include our temporary location we stay at when on vacation or traveling on business trips. I want to also suggest that you can have multiple Safe Zones to be contingencies in the event that your primary Safe Zone gets destroyed by a disaster event or the routes to it become impassable. If you live in a city, it would be wise to determine four Safe Zones outside the city one to the north, east, south, and west. So that no matter where you were in the city when you had to evacuate, you would have a Safe Zone option available to you.

Depending on your needs and available resources, your Safe Zone(s) will be either temporary or permanent. Staying with friends or family, will be a temporary location. An RV lot, vacation home, or secondary residence can be a permanent solution if need be.

Now that we have discussed Mode of Transport, Known Hazards, and Safe Zones, lets move on to Routes. In keeping with a preparedness mindset (https://mtnmanblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/adapt-improvise-overcome-survival.html), to achieve success during a disaster or crisis you need to have options. Options come from pre-planning and rehearsing your plan (followed by a review of successes and areas that need improvements before re-writing and updating your plan.) Just remember planning never ends, it is a process of continuous improvement.

Route options come from conducting a map recce, followed by driving each and every proposed route. Take notes along the Route to identify Known Hazards, Obstacles, and Choke Points. Modify your Route(s) as is appropriate. Create fuel caches along your Route if needed as a contingency. Map your Routes and protect your marked maps. Keep a set of marked maps with your GOOD PLAN.

Determine your PRIMARY, SECONDARY, & TERTIARY ROUTES.

PRIMARY ROUTE: Will usually be the shortest or fastest or simplest Route to your Safe Zone. If you evacuate before the crowds, this is the Route you will most likely use to successfully arrive at your Safe Zone as planned.

SECONDARY ROUTE: In the event you evacuate too late or learn that your PRIMARY ROUTE is not passable, you will elect to use your SECONDARY ROUTE. The SECONDARY ROUTE will not be as fast as the PRIMARY ROUTE; however, the SECONDARY will travel different routes that are more likely to be passable and have less traffic than other routes. Decisions to take the SECONDARY may need to be made while on the fly. In rapidly changing situations staying flexible to using alternate routes may be what saves you and your family.

TERTIARY ROUTE: Either conditions or trigger event or timings may make it necessary to resort to using your TERTIARY ROUTE. The TERTIARY ROUTE is likely the longest, slowest, and most complicated route you have mapped out. This route also will have the highest likelihood of getting you to your Safe Zone in the safest condition.

Be prepared. There is no reason to stop at only mapping three routes to your Safe Zone. The more options you know, the higher the likelihood of successfully reaching your Safe Zone during a disaster or crisis evacuation. Options come from pre-planning and training. Options equal survival.

Whether you are working on your primary GOOD PLAN (https://thegoodplanblog.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-good-plan-now-available-on-amazon.html) or creating a specific annex GOOD PLAN because you are going on vacation or traveling to a new worksite or going to visit Grandma, I hope this discussion helps you create better route plans and consider viable alternates.

Remember, if it can be known, it can be planned for!!

 

VAM